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Throughout much of the rocky economic “soft patch” period of the past several weeks, optimists clung to the idea that second-quarter earnings would provide a positive catalyst for stocks.

Back in June, that seemed more like hope than a sound strategy. Now, with the stock market racing higher again and earnings season arriving next week, hope will meet reality. It might not turn out the way folks expect.

The mood surrounding earnings remains remarkably upbeat, but it is a touch more muted than earlier in the quarter. According to Yardeni Research, second-quarter earnings estimates for the S&P 500 are down 4.3% from their peak, reached on May 13. In all, estimates for the S&P 500 are up 0.1% from March 31, with the energy sector making up the lion’s share of upward revisions.

Still, Yardeni Research sees the tenth straight positive earnings surprise for the S&P 500, with quarterly earnings outperforming expectations by 4%. In other words, they’ll leap over the bar that has been lowered since mid-May. Funny how that works.

The earnings season kicks off on Monday with Alcoa’s (AA) report after-the-close. Shortly thereafter, financials will dominate the headlines, with J.P. Morgan (JPM) reporting Thursday, Citigroup (C) Friday and early in the following week Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

The financials are expected to report weak numbers, reflective of their poor performance this year. Analysts have trimmed earnings estimates for financials 8.6% since March 31 as banks grapple with heavy mortgage problems along with weak trading and deal activity.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns that banks and insurance companies could disappoint, “but overall reporting season should be good as beats by non-financials offset financial misses.” That glass-half-full view seems predominant in the market.

As ever, commentary about what’s up ahead will matter just as much, if not more, than actual results. This is particularly true this quarter, since the impact of the Japanese earthquake should be better understood. Auto companies and the technology sector have suffered severe supply disruptions from the March quake. But indications from Japan, where economic indicators have turned sharply higher in the past two months, should mean that the earthquake factor is receding quickly.

Early clues point to a strong season. Of 25 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings in fiscal quarters ending in May, 15 have beat expectations and 3 have missed. Analysts expect earnings will rise more than 14% year-over-year in the second quarter, with the heft of those gains coming from the technology sector.

A robust earnings season is crucial for one of the main bull arguments: valuation. Most market watchers believe stocks are historically inexpensive, with the S&P 500 trading about 12 times forward earnings. In addition, HSBC Global Research points out that valuations “are particularly cheap relative to interest rates, which are likely to stay low” for some time. A good earnings season would make stock valuations look even more attractive.

Technology will be the most closely watched sector. Analysts are a little unsure of what to expect, having tweaked earnings estimates down 0.8% since March 31. During first-quarter earnings season, a number of semiconductor firms warned of sluggishness in the second quarter and the disruption of the tablet revolution has had a still difficult to discern impact on PC-related companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Micron (MU) and Dell (DELL).

Intel reported a strong first quarter, announced a share buyback, increased its dividend and forecast gains up ahead. Its report, on July 20, will provide a crucial indicator for the overall health of the PC-stock group.

The energy sector is expected to report some of the strongest figures, benefiting from still high oil prices. ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) will report at the end of July.

While earnings should be strong, some fret that much of the optimism may already be baked into the stock market, especially after the strong surge in shares during the past two weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading less than 1% below its 2011 high, reached in late April just before the soft patch debate intensified.

Brian Belski, market strategist at Oppenheimer, says that “client consensus” is that second-quarter earnings will provide a strong catalyst for stocks. But oftentimes, he says, consensus is wrong.

“We think too many investors are banking on another season of upward earnings surprise,” he says. “For one thing, the economy has clearly slowed, and rising nondiscretionary costs over the past several months have pressured the consumer which generates the majority of U.S. growth. In addition, earnings revisions for the S&P 500 (for both 2011 and 2012 earnings) are approaching all-time highs.”

In other words, after several quarters of too much pessimism, Wall Street may have gotten too rose-colored heading into this quarter’s reporting season. Among S&P 500 companies, 66 companies have provided negative earnings guidance for the quarter and 34 have given positive guidance, a negative harbinger that is being overlooked.

With banks promising to set a sour mood early in the reporting campaign, it will take something incredibly special to surprise a crowd that is already well down the yellow-brick road. Could be a rockier stroll than most expect.

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